- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 28?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 28?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 28?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 28?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 28?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 28?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 28?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a Tokyo high near 31–32°C on August 28, with partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light easterly winds limiting peak solar heating. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 31°C (34.5%) and 32°C (24.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest moderation from recent 33–35°C readings. Key variables include timing and coverage of afternoon convection, which could shave 1–2°C if showers arrive earlier, or allow brief clearing that pushes toward 33°C. Historical late-August normals of ~31°C provide context, while forecast spread across models sustains the observed probability tail toward 30°C and 33°C. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon radar trends will refine resolution.