- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 26?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 26?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 26?15¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 26?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 26?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 26?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 26?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a maximum temperature of 33–35°C in Tokyo on August 26, supporting the near-even market split between those outcomes. Persistent summer high pressure and southerly flow have maintained recent daily highs near 33–35°C, yet increasing mid-level moisture and a 20–40% chance of scattered afternoon showers or cloud build-up could cap peak readings by 1–2°C. Model runs diverge on timing and coverage of convection, creating the close implied probabilities around the 34°C and 35°C thresholds while historical August averages near 31°C underscore the current elevated baseline. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria for the daily maximum.