- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 25?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 25?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 25?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 25?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 25?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 25?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 25?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued August 24 project a maximum of 35°C for Tokyo on August 25 under clearing skies and minimal precipitation, aligning with late-summer Pacific high pressure patterns that favor daytime heating. Trader consensus splitting between 33°C and 34°C reflects uncertainty in urban heat island effects, exact cloud timing, and station-specific measurements at the Tokyo observation site, where small variations in insolation or advection can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima average near 30–31°C, but recent model runs show elevated potential from persistent warmth, keeping outcomes tightly clustered while underscoring the narrow window for resolution based on official verified data.