- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 24?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 24?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 24?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 24?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 24?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 24?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 24?3¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate partly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 24 with a projected high of 34°C, while other models suggest 32–33°C under scattered clouds and possible showers. These conditions, combined with typical late-August humidity above 70% and the urban heat island effect, position 32°C and 33°C as the market leaders by balancing expected solar heating against modest cloud cover and precipitation that can suppress peak readings. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, but short-term model consensus on modest instability favors outcomes in the low-to-mid 30s over extremes above 34°C or cooler values below 31°C. Updated JMA guidance and any revised model runs tomorrow morning represent the key near-term data points that could shift implied probabilities.