- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 23?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 23?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 23?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 23?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 23?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 23?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 23?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 23?2¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 23 project a daytime maximum near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light winds, aligning closely with the long-term August climatological average of 30.6°C. This consensus, reinforced by ensemble model runs showing limited diurnal heating from persistent cloud cover and potential afternoon convection, drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–31°C. Differentiating these outcomes hinges on precise factors such as the timing and extent of solar insolation breaks, boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention, and any steering influences from regional pressure gradients that could allow brief clearing or enhance mixing. Updated model guidance and observational trends through the evening of August 22 will further refine the expected peak before resolution.