- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 22?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 22?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 22?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 22?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 22?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on August 22?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on August 22?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 22?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 22?5¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Cloud cover and scattered showers expected on August 22 are the main near-term factors moderating Tokyo’s peak temperature, keeping market-implied probabilities concentrated on 30–32 °C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance issued August 21 forecasts a cloudy day with occasional showers later, maximum around 33 °C and minimum 24 °C, while other models center closer to 31 °C. These conditions reduce solar heating compared with clear-sky scenarios that would otherwise push readings higher under the season’s dominant Pacific High. August climatology for Tokyo shows a normal daily maximum near 30.8 °C, but 2026 has featured above-average warmth across Japan due to a strengthened subtropical ridge. The combination of lingering summer heat with increased moisture and reduced insolation from clouds therefore anchors trader consensus around the 31 °C outcome (36 % implied) and 32 °C (25.5 %), with lower probabilities assigned to 33 °C or above given the precipitation risk. Updated JMA or numerical model runs on the morning of the 22nd will be the next key data point for any late shifts.