Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 18?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 18?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 18?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 18?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 18?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 18?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 18?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on August 18?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders see 30–31°C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 18 maximum because the latest Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models converge near 32–33°C but allow for greater cloud cover and a moderating sea breeze that could cap readings 1–2°C lower. Persistent subtropical high pressure continues to favor above-normal warmth, yet recent model runs show increased moisture and scattered cloudiness that reduce surface heating relative to clearer analogs from mid-August. Historical climatology places typical daily maxima around 31–32°C with high humidity, but small forecast shifts in timing of any frontal passage or urban heat-island modulation keep the two leading outcomes nearly tied at 41.5% and 36.5% implied probability.