This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecast models from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and international agencies indicate a high near 32°C for Tel Aviv on August 14, consistent with typical mid-August Mediterranean conditions under stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover. This supports the market's heavy weighting toward 32–33°C outcomes, as historical averages hover around 30–32°C with low day-to-day variability. Recent observations show no active heatwave or anomalous warming, reducing odds of exceeding 34°C while keeping 31°C viable if coastal breezes strengthen slightly. Traders monitor updated model runs for any shifts in wind patterns or humidity that could alter peak readings by a degree or two before resolution.