- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 21?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 21?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 21?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 21?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 21?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 21?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 21?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for Taipei's August 21 maximum temperature reflects high uncertainty around typical late-summer conditions, with market-implied probabilities clustering on 32–34°C (combined ~77.5%). Recent Central Weather Administration (CWA) guidance and short-range model runs point to daytime highs near 33–34°C under partly cloudy skies with afternoon thundershowers, consistent with August climatology of 32–34°C averages and frequent convective activity. Key variables include the timing and intensity of diurnal convection, which can suppress peaks through cloud shading and evaporative cooling; southwesterly monsoon flow delivering heat and moisture; urban heat-island amplification in the Taipei basin; and any shifts in low-level wind or humidity that alter the boundary-layer energy budget. Clearer, drier conditions could push readings toward 35°C or higher, while earlier or heavier showers favor 32°C or below. With resolution only two days away, updates from CWA forecasts and observational data on cloud cover and instability will likely drive the tightest probability shifts.