- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 5?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 5?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 5?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 5?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on September 5?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological services and international models, indicate a high temperature in Shenzhen on September 5 most likely between 30–32°C under multi-cloud conditions with light winds and a chance of showers. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 31°C (44.5%) and 32°C (27.5%), followed by 30°C (17.0%). Shenzhen’s subtropical monsoon climate produces average September daily highs near 31°C, with historical September maxima typically ranging 30–33°C absent strong tropical influences. Current patterns show stable high pressure with no major typhoon or cold front intrusion expected in the next 24–48 hours, keeping daytime heating moderate amid cloud cover that limits peak solar radiation. Model consensus points to afternoon maxima near 30–31°C, with slight upward revisions possible if skies clear more than anticipated. Traders appear to weigh these short-range forecasts heavily, as resolution occurs within hours of the latest model runs. Uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any localized convective activity explains the spread across 30–32°C outcomes rather than a single dominant probability. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration or equivalent regional models will likely refine these implied probabilities before market close.