- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 4?100¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on September 4?0¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official meteorological observations from Shenzhen stations confirm a daily maximum of 30°C on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s near-100% implied probability for that outcome. Real-time station reports recorded a peak of 30°C around midday under mostly cloudy conditions with light winds, consistent with regional model guidance and climatological norms for early September in the Pearl River Delta. This verified measurement, rather than forecasts, underpins trader consensus, as prediction markets aggregate capital-weighted assessments of observable data. Minor uncertainty could arise only from rare post-processing adjustments or station-specific averaging by the China Meteorological Administration, though historical practice shows such revisions rarely alter the reported daily high by more than 1°C.