- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on September 4?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 4?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 4?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 4?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 4?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts for Shenzhen on September 4 indicate scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover from a lingering subtropical monsoon trough, which is suppressing peak daytime heating and keeping maximum temperatures clustered near 28–30°C. Model runs emphasize variable precipitation timing and intensity as the key uncertainty, with clearer intervals potentially allowing brief rises to 30–31°C while persistent rain favors 27–28°C. This aligns with early September climatology, where average highs reach about 31°C but frequently moderate under convective activity. The market distribution reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes ahead of final observational data.