- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 1?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 1?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 1?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 1?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 1?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and moderate northerly winds are keeping maximum temperatures in Shenzhen tightly clustered around 30–31 °C for September 1. Official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and international models (WeatherBug, Worldmeteo, Yr) consistently project daytime highs of 30–32 °C amid mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain or thunderstorms, with precipitation totals ranging from light to locally heavy. These conditions limit surface heating compared with clearer summer days, while elevated humidity and dew points near 25–26 °C further moderate the peak. Recent heavy rain on August 31 has left the region moist, reinforcing the cloudy regime and reducing the chance of strong afternoon warming. Minor model differences in exact rainfall timing and cloud breaks account for the narrow spread between the 30 °C and 31 °C market leaders (34.5 % and 36.5 % implied probability). Stronger or more prolonged rain could push the high toward 29 °C, while any extended sunny interval might allow a brief spike to 32 °C. Updated local radar and numerical guidance through the morning of September 1 will be the key near-term drivers.