- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 27?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 27?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 27?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 27?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 27?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 27?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity across Shenzhen, driven by the East Asian monsoon and a persistent low-pressure trough, represent the dominant factor capping daytime highs for August 27. Official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and international models project a maximum of 30–32 °C under mostly cloudy skies, frequent showers, and high humidity exceeding 85 %, which reduces solar insolation and enhances evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 32 °C provide context, yet the current unsettled pattern—marked by 20–100 mm of expected precipitation—aligns closely with observed highs of 30–31 °C on preceding rainy days. Trader consensus reflected in the 41 % and 30 % implied probabilities for 31 °C and 30 °C therefore tracks the latest model guidance favoring modest temperatures over the historical peak.