- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 26?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 26?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 26?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 26?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 26?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 26?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 26?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 26?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 26?24¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and observational trends position 30–32°C as the most probable range for Shenzhen’s maximum temperature on August 26, 2026. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical of late August in the Pearl River Delta, combined with recent rainfall patterns, are expected to moderate daytime heating while maintaining highs near or slightly above the monthly climatological average of ~31–32°C. Current guidance from sources such as timeanddate.com and AccuWeather indicates a high around 32°C (90°F) under cloudy skies with rain showers, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes at 31°C (35.5%), 30°C (23.5%), and 32°C (23.0%). Recent wetter-than-average conditions in the region have suppressed extreme heat, reducing the likelihood of readings at or above 33°C (combined <9%). Official Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau monitoring and ensemble forecasts will provide the final verified maximum, with any last-minute shifts in steering flow or cloud cover able to nudge the outcome within the narrow 30–32°C window.