- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 25?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 25?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 25?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 25?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 25?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 25?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 25?8¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity linked to regional tropical disturbances and monsoon influences are capping daytime heating in Shenzhen, keeping the August 25 maximum temperature centered on 31–32 °C according to current model consensus. Cloud cover, evaporative cooling from frequent showers, and moderate southerly winds reduce insolation and sensible heat buildup, while the urban heat island effect provides a slight upward bias in built-up areas. Forecast uncertainty stems from variations in rainfall timing and intensity across ensemble runs, with any localized breaks in cloud cover or lighter precipitation potentially allowing a brief push to 32 °C versus widespread downpours favoring 30–31 °C. Official updates from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and refined model guidance over the next 48 hours will clarify resolution thresholds for this near-term market.