Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 18?
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 18?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 18?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 18?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 18?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 18?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 18?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 18?32¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shenzhen maximum of 31–32°C on August 18 because official forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that typically cap daytime heating near the long-term August average of 32°C. These conditions reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, making 33°C or higher less likely unless a clearer, drier air mass arrives. Conversely, 30°C or lower would require stronger onshore flow or heavier organized rain than currently projected. With probabilities tightly clustered, small shifts in the next model runs—particularly those resolving the timing and intensity of convective activity—could quickly reprice the adjacent outcomes.