- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 2?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 2?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 2?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 2?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 2?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on September 2?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources point to a high of 28–29°C in Shanghai on September 2, driven by widespread cloud cover and heavy rainfall associated with an approaching weather system. This setup favors suppressed daytime heating through reduced solar radiation and evaporative cooling from precipitation, aligning with early September climatology where monsoon remnants often cap maxima near 28°C. Market-implied odds favoring 30–31°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential model disagreements on exact rain timing and intensity from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.