- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 1?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 1?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on September 1?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from agencies and models indicate Shanghai's September 1 daily maximum will likely reach 30–31°C under partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers and easterly winds, consistent with the transition from peak summer monsoon patterns. High humidity near 80% and potential afternoon convection limit further warming, while regional sea surface temperatures and steering flow support this range without extreme heat or rapid cooling. Late-August observations of 31–33°C highs provide the baseline, and the market-implied 53.5% probability on 30°C alongside 27.5% on 31°C reflects trader consensus on these moderate outcomes amid typical early-September variability and forecast uncertainty.