- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 31?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 31?57¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 31?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including models referenced by the Met Office and regional providers, converge on a daytime high of 31–33°C for Shanghai on August 31 under partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers. This follows the recent passage of Typhoon Saudel, whose weakening remnants have maintained elevated humidity and cloud cover that limit full solar heating while preventing sharp cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, with current steering patterns and moisture levels favoring the upper end of that range rather than extremes. Market-implied odds align closely with this consensus, assigning the strongest probability to 32°C as the most likely outcome based on the latest model runs and observed trends.