- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 29?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 29?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 29?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 29?61¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 29?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 29?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 29?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model runs projecting a daytime maximum near 32–33°C, position 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai’s highest temperature on August 29. Late-summer conditions feature typical subtropical humidity, southeast winds, and scattered showers that are unlikely to fully suppress peak heating under partly cloudy skies. Current model consensus shows limited day-to-day shifts, with ensembles clustering tightly around this range rather than extremes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band and historical August baselines near 31°C when assigning the highest implied probability to 32°C, while 31°C and 33°C retain secondary support pending any last-minute forecast revisions from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration.