- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 28?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 28?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current numerical weather prediction consensus, including outputs aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, points to a maximum temperature of 31–32 °C in Shanghai on August 28 amid expected light rain, elevated cloud cover, and easterly flow that will limit daytime heating and enhance evaporative cooling. This outlook follows recent daily highs of 32–33 °C and fits the late-August climatological mean of ~31 °C for the subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (often >80 %) and frequent precipitation episodes further moderate peaks. Ensemble spreads remain modest on exact rainfall timing and intensity, sustaining market-implied probabilities favoring 31 °C (52.5 %) over 32 °C (32.0 %) or 30 °C (9.5 %), while lower odds on 33 °C or above reflect the dampening effect of the anticipated weather pattern. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.