- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 26?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 26?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 26?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 26?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 26?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 26?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models currently point to a daily high near 32–33°C in Shanghai on August 26, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Late-August climatology for the region features typical highs of 30–32°C amid high humidity and occasional monsoon or typhoon influences, but recent extended forecasts from sources such as Timeanddate and Weather25 show mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with highs of 32–33°C (roughly 91–91°F) and minimal precipitation risk. These values sit slightly above recent daily observations earlier in the month, which have hovered around 30–31°C, reflecting modest warming under stable high-pressure steering rather than an anomalous heat surge. With resolution only two days away, model consensus on temperature, dew point, and wind patterns will dominate updates; any unexpected cloud cover or sea-breeze enhancement could trim the high by 1°C, while clearer skies or reduced moisture would support the upper end of the distribution. Trader pricing therefore aggregates these short-range guidance signals into the observed 32°C lead.