- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 24?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 24?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 24?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 24?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 24?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from models used by the China Meteorological Administration and international services indicate Shanghai's peak temperature on August 24 will likely reach 31–32°C under typical late-summer subtropical conditions, with southerly flow, moderate humidity, and possible light rain or morning clouds limiting stronger heating. This aligns with climatological August highs near 32°C and explains the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Updated guidance shows no significant warm advection or clear-sky intensification expected, keeping 33°C or higher at low implied probability while cooler scenarios remain unlikely absent unusual frontal activity.