- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 23?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 23?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 23?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 23?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 23?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 23?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate persistent cloud cover, overcast skies, and scattered thundershowers or rain for Shanghai on August 23, which limits daytime solar heating and caps maximum temperatures near the long-term August average of 31–32°C. Subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and frequent precipitation episodes suppress extreme heat, consistent with observed maxima of 30–34°C in the preceding days amid similar weather patterns. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor 31°C (51.5%) and 32°C (35.0%) because ensemble guidance shows only modest warming potential if breaks in clouds occur, while lower or higher extremes remain unlikely given the steering flow and moisture. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these odds as convective activity and timing become clearer.