- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 4?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 4?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on September 4?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on September 4?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models show Incheon/Seoul highs stabilizing near 29–30°C on September 4 under mostly clear skies and easterly flow, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation allowing full daytime heating. This aligns with trader emphasis on 30°C (46.5%) and 29°C (32.5%) as leading outcomes, reflecting model consensus on modest warming from northerly dry air advection amid seasonal transition from summer peaks. Lower probabilities for 31°C or above account for potential slight cooling from sustained winds, while sub-28°C scenarios remain unlikely given current observational trends and stable high-pressure patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of landfall timing will refine these market-implied odds.