- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 30?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 30?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 30?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 30?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 30?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 30?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 30?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C or higher on August 30?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 30, 2026, centers on 27°C and 28°C as the leading outcomes (32.5% and 29.5% implied probability), with 26°C a clear third. This distribution reflects the latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) guidance and ensemble model consensus pointing to daytime highs in the 26–28°C range under mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain. Recent developments include a low-pressure system and associated frontal boundary moving across the region, delivering widespread cloud cover, showers, and localized thunderstorms from August 29 into 30. These conditions suppress daytime solar heating compared with the sunnier, hotter pattern earlier in the week, when highs reached the low-to-mid 30s. Official short-range forecasts list maximum temperatures of 26–28°C for the Seoul-Incheon area on the 30th, with minima around 21–23°C, consistent with the influence of northeasterly flow and elevated humidity that limits afternoon warming. Key scientific factors differentiating the top outcomes include the precise timing and intensity of rain and cloud breaks. Persistent overcast skies and ongoing precipitation would favor a 26–27°C peak by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while any earlier clearing or lighter shower activity could allow brief additional heating toward 28°C. Model spreads arise from small differences in frontal progression and boundary-layer moisture, typical uncertainties in short-range forecasts near a dynamic weather system. Historical late-August climatology for the region supports this cooler regime once monsoon or frontal influences arrive, aligning market pricing with the current observational and modeling consensus.