- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 29?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 29?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 29?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 29?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 29?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 29?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 29?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C or higher on August 29?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and other models indicate a daytime high near 29–30°C for Incheon/Seoul on August 29, 2026, with widespread cloud cover and periods of rain or showers expected to moderate peak temperatures. This aligns closely with the market’s tight leading probabilities for 29°C (33.5%) and 30°C (31.0%), reflecting trader focus on the precise balance between residual warmth and cooling from precipitation. Key scientific drivers include an approaching frontal system or enhanced monsoon moisture, which increases cloud fraction and reduces incoming solar radiation (insolation) at the surface. This limits daytime heating compared to clearer conditions earlier in the week. High humidity and evaporative cooling from rain further suppress the maximum, while light winds (often under 10 km/h) limit mixing that could otherwise transport warmer air downward. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical highs around 29°C, providing a baseline, but the current pattern favors values at or slightly below that average. Model consensus points to the peak occurring in the early to mid-afternoon before heavier showers arrive, creating narrow uncertainty around the 29–30°C threshold. Updated KMA short-term forecasts, hourly observations, and any revisions to rainfall timing or intensity represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied odds.