- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on September 8?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on September 8?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on September 8?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 8?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 8?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 8?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 8?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus centers on 19–21°C as the most likely highest temperature for São Paulo on September 8, 2026, with 20°C holding the largest share at 35.5%. This reflects current model guidance showing a modest rebound from the sharp cooldown driven by a polar air mass (massa de ar polar) that arrived early in the month. A strong cold front and associated high pressure have suppressed temperatures well below seasonal norms. Early September climatology typically features daily highs near 22–24°C, but the polar outbreak brought maxima of only 12–13°C on September 7 amid overcast skies and light rain. For September 8, official and ensemble forecasts (including runs aligned with Met Office, Yr, and regional guidance) indicate gradual moderation under continued cloud cover and light easterly flow, supporting a peak near 19–20°C with limited daytime heating. Winds remain light, and precipitation chances stay elevated, further capping any rapid warmup. The 21–22°C outcomes capture upside risk if clearing occurs earlier than expected, while lower probabilities for 18°C or below reflect the likelihood of some diurnal recovery. Higher thresholds above 23°C remain remote given the entrenched cool air mass and ongoing frontal influence. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Congonhas or a comparable reference station, with the next model updates and surface observations likely to refine the tight 19–21°C cluster.