- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on September 5?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 5?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 5?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 5?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 5?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 5?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5 is the dominant driver behind market-implied odds clustering around 21–23°C, with 22°C holding a modest lead. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and regional models indicate daytime maxima near 22°C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and southerly winds advecting cooler polar air, sharply contrasting recent days’ 27–28°C highs under clearer conditions. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with precipitation and reduced insolation suppressing peak temperatures, though minor variations in frontal timing or residual solar heating could shift the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Resolution will hinge on official INMET station readings for the calendar-day high.