- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on September 4?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on September 4?16¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent meteorological model consensus for São Paulo points to a maximum temperature of 28–30°C on September 4, driven by stable high-pressure conditions, light northwesterly winds, and predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies that favor daytime solar heating. Official guidance from sources such as INMET and regional forecasts shows afternoon peaks near 27–31°C before a frontal system arrives Saturday, bringing cooler polar air. These values sit above the September climatological average high of roughly 23–25°C, reflecting the current dry, warming pattern. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of ensemble outputs and limited model spread when assigning the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C.