- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on September 1?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 1?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 1?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 1?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 1?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 1?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on September 1?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a cooler day for São Paulo on September 1 driven by an approaching cold front and associated cloud cover, with widespread rain and thunderstorms expected to limit solar heating. Highs are projected near 20–24°C across sources, including 23°C in several global and regional runs, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around 22–24°C. Northwest winds and high humidity will further moderate peak temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation. This contrasts with the warmer, clearer conditions on August 31. Traders are weighting ensemble consensus and short-range model agreement ahead of final overnight updates from agencies like INMET and ECMWF, which could shift resolution if convective timing or intensity changes.