- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 38°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 39°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or below on August 31?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 31?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 31?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 31?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 31?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C on August 31?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 36°C on August 31?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 37°C on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources point to a daily maximum around 30–32°C in São Paulo on August 31, sustained by a warm, dry air mass that has elevated temperatures above seasonal norms since late August. This pattern, expected to end with cooler, wetter conditions arriving September 1, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 29°C or below while leaving room for slight upward revisions if afternoon heating exceeds model consensus. Historical late-winter maxima average near 24–26°C, making the current anomaly the dominant near-term driver of implied probabilities ahead of final observational data.