- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 28?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 28?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 28?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 28?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 28?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on August 28?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
A warm, dry air mass is driving above-average temperatures across São Paulo on August 28, 2026, with official and model forecasts centering on a maximum of 31–33 °C under clear, sunny skies and low humidity. This setup stems from northerly or northwesterly flow advecting warmer continental air ahead of an approaching cold front, suppressing cloud cover and allowing strong daytime insolation at the city's subtropical latitude and elevation. Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including Meteoblue, GFS-derived products, and local meteorological guidance, show afternoon peaks reaching the low-to-mid 30s °C before the front brings cooling and rain after September 1. Market-implied odds favor 32 °C as the most likely outcome because recent model consensus and current observations align with this narrow range, while the modest probability on 33 °C or higher reflects remaining uncertainty in peak boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds. Historical August maxima average near 22–23 °C, underscoring the anomalous nature of this event driven by the transient warm-air intrusion. Traders are monitoring the final afternoon observations and any last model updates for confirmation before resolution.