- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on August 23?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on August 23?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 23?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 23?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 23?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 23?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 23?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from agencies including IPMet and international ensembles converge on a maximum of 23–24°C for São Paulo on August 23, driven by a stable high-pressure system delivering dry southeast flow, light winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. This late-winter pattern aligns with climatological baselines around 23°C while suppressing stronger warming. Recent runs show minimal spread, keeping the 24°C outcome at 50% implied probability as the modal resolution, with 23°C close behind at 28%. Traders weigh official observations against any final-hour adjustments from local stations, though current guidance indicates low risk of deviation outside this narrow band.