Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 18?
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 18?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 18?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 18?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 18?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 18?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 18?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on August 18, 2026, centers on 30–31°C because official forecasts and real-time observations point to a peak near those levels under stable winter conditions. August climatology for the region features dry-season highs averaging 23–25°C at stations like Congonhas Airport, with occasional warmer spikes when subtropical high pressure suppresses cloud cover and allows greater solar heating. Current model guidance from agencies such as INMET and international ensembles shows mostly sunny skies, light northeasterly winds, and afternoon temperatures reaching approximately 30–31°C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities of 48.5% for 31°C and 29% for 30°C. Recent data releases, including updated short-range forecasts on August 17–18, have reinforced this range by confirming no significant cooling advection or precipitation that would cap the maximum below 30°C. The modest 11% probability on 32°C reflects the tail risk of localized warming if boundary-layer mixing is stronger than expected, while lower outcomes remain unlikely given the observed trend toward the upper end of seasonal norms. New observational reports from official monitoring networks will determine final resolution as the day concludes.