This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent atmospheric stability under a high-pressure system has produced mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over São Paulo, supporting daytime highs near the seasonal average of 24–25°C. Short-range model runs show modest differences in maximum temperature driven by subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and wind speeds that modulate surface heating rates. With 25°C and 26°C nearly tied in trader pricing, small forecast adjustments to solar insolation or urban heat retention could shift the daily peak across that threshold. Official observations from INMET stations will determine the exact maximum, and updated model guidance through the evening of August 14 remains the key near-term catalyst.