- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on September 4?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 4?62¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 4?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 80°F or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 4?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus centers on a high of 70–71°F for San Francisco on September 4, 2026, reflecting the strong influence of the marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific. Official National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate a sunny to partly cloudy day with highs near 66–69°F under moderate west winds of 10–20 mph, consistent with September climatology where the average high is 70°F. Recent model runs show limited warming potential due to upwelling-cooled ocean waters and typical early-September stratus, keeping the city cooler than inland areas. Morning observations and short-range guidance reinforce this range, with only modest upside risk if winds weaken or the marine layer thins earlier than expected. The distribution of probabilities closely tracks the narrow uncertainty band in current NWS and ensemble forecasts.