- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on September 1?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on September 1?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on September 1?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on September 1?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 1?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 1?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on September 1?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus on the Polymarket for San Francisco’s September 1 high temperature centers on the 68–69°F bin at 48.5% implied probability, with the next tier (70–71°F) at 25.5%. Official National Weather Service and model guidance through late August highlight a persistent, deep marine layer and onshore southwest flow suppressing daytime highs into the mid-60s, well below the early-September climatological average near 70°F. Light morning drizzle and extensive low stratus are expected to limit solar heating, though any afternoon clearing could allow modest warming toward the upper 60s. Recent model runs show limited spread, with consensus favoring readings around 63–66°F, yet the market pricing reflects residual uncertainty over boundary-layer mixing and the timing of any marine-layer erosion. Updated NWS point forecasts and next model cycle will provide the clearest near-term signal ahead of resolution.