- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on August 31?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on August 31?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 31?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 31?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 31?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 31?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent marine layer and strong onshore flow from the cool California Current and coastal upwelling are the primary drivers keeping San Francisco temperatures suppressed, with National Weather Service forecasts for August 31 pointing to mostly cloudy conditions, a slight morning drizzle chance, and highs in the lower to mid-60s at SFO. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 64–67°F bins, reflecting typical summer patterns where sea breezes and stratus limit afternoon warming well below the 69.6°F climatological average. Minor model variations in wind strength and cloud thinning introduce uncertainty that could shift outcomes by a few degrees, while recent observations of stable marine influence support the current market-implied odds without notable forecast revisions.