- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 25?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 25?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 25?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 25?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 25?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 25?10¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 70–73°F outcomes for San Francisco’s August 25 high, reflecting tight model consensus around a shallow marine layer and persistent onshore westerly flow. National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate morning stratus and haze limiting insolation, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s at official stations under 10–20 mph winds. Subtle differences between the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins hinge on forecast mixing depth and any late-day ridge influence that could briefly erode the inversion; coastal upwelling and typical August climatology cap extreme upside, keeping odds for 74°F+ below 10%. Latest model runs and real-time observations will determine final resolution as the day progresses.