- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on August 21?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 21?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 21?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 21?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 21?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 21?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 21?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high near 29–31°C in Qingdao on August 21, driven by a moist summer air mass with embedded thundershowers and variable cloud cover that can suppress daytime heating by 1–3°C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Sea breezes off the Yellow Sea add moderation, while southeasterly flow may enhance or limit mixing depending on storm timing. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30°C (33.5%), 29°C (26.5%), and 31°C (25.5%) reflects this narrow uncertainty range, with resolution hinging on whether showers arrive before or after peak afternoon temperatures and the exact extent of cloud cover. Historical August averages near 30°C provide baseline context, but convective activity introduces the key variability traders are pricing.