- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on September 9?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on September 9?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on September 9?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 9?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 9?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest ensemble forecasts from European models show a maximum temperature in Paris on September 9 most likely reaching 20–21 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate northwest winds following the passage of a cool front. This places the day slightly below the 1991–2020 average high of 22.4 °C for the date. Market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty between 21 °C (45.5 %) and 22 °C (40.5 %), driven by small differences in how models handle daytime insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and residual cloud cover after overnight clearing. Official guidance from Météo-France and global ensembles currently clusters near these values, with limited upside risk from warmer advection or downside from additional cloud. Updated model runs and the next official forecast issuance remain the key near-term catalysts.