- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on September 8?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on September 8?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 8?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 8?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 8?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 8?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 8?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS and DWD points to a high of 23–24°C in Paris on September 8, driven by a strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching Atlantic low-pressure system. This setup is increasing cloud cover and triggering afternoon showers, which cap daytime heating after several days of warmer, clearer conditions that produced highs near 28–29°C. Historical climatology for the date shows an average high of 22.6°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 23–25°C outcomes. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced the expectation of limited insolation, keeping the 24°C bin in the lead while maintaining modest odds for 25°C if breaks in the cloud allow brief warming.