- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 5?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 5?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 5?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 5?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS guidance, indicate a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Paris on September 5 under partly cloudy skies and northwest winds of 5–12 km/h. This stems from a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and limited daytime heating, with dew points in the low teens Celsius supporting modest surface warming above the 23°C climatological average. Trader consensus reflected in the 47% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 24°C tracks the tight model cluster, while lower odds for 26°C or above account for minor ensemble spread and potential for brief clearing. Final official observations from Météo-France will resolve the market.