- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 4?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 4?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 4?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on September 4?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from sources including Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS indicate a daytime high near 28°C in Paris on September 4 under moderate westerly winds, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and negligible precipitation risk. This places the outcome just above the September climatological average of roughly 23°C while remaining well below historical extremes above 33°C. Recent model runs show tight clustering between 27–29°C with limited spread, reflecting stable atmospheric conditions and no strong high-pressure ridge or warm advection to push values higher. Traders have priced 28°C highest at 43% implied probability, followed by 29°C and 27°C, consistent with the narrow forecast envelope and typical model uncertainty in maximum temperature resolution.