- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 2?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 2?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 2?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 2?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 2?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France ensembles places the September 2 maximum in Paris at 24–26 °C under stable high pressure, light westerly flow, and mostly cloudy conditions with minimal precipitation risk. This aligns directly with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 25 °C and 26 °C, reflecting limited model spread and typical early-September climatology near 23–25 °C. Short-range updates through August 31 show no significant warm or cool advection that would shift the distribution toward 27 °C or below 24 °C, keeping the 45–55 % combined probability band for the two central outcomes firmly anchored until the final model runs before resolution.