- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 29?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 29?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 29?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 29?40¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 29?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on August 29?5¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent weather model consensus from sources including Météo-France and international ensembles points to a daytime maximum near 23°C in Paris on August 29, driven by a southwest flow ahead of an Atlantic trough that favors extensive cloud cover, scattered light showers, and limited solar heating. This setup aligns with late-August norms but suppresses temperatures below the long-term average high of roughly 24°C. Hourly guidance shows peaks most likely between 22–24°C, with wind speeds of 20–30 km/h adding minor mixing. Trader-implied probabilities, led by the 23°C outcome at 39.5%, closely track this narrow forecast range while assigning lower weight to warmer or cooler outliers given model agreement and the short time to resolution.