- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 23?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 23?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 23?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and other models show a stable high of 23–25 °C for Paris on August 23, 2026, driving the market’s strong consensus around 24 °C (52.5 %). After an intense early-August heatwave that pushed temperatures well above 30 °C, a cooler, drier northeasterly flow has established itself across northern France. This has reduced daytime maxima to near or slightly below the long-term August average of ~24–25 °C. Multiple model runs and official guidance converge on a peak near 24 °C under variable cloud cover, with light northeast winds of 10–15 km/h limiting mixing and preventing stronger warming. The secondary probability on 23 °C (21.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover or slight model spread, while the smaller 25 °C share (14.5 %) captures any modest upside if clearer skies develop. With resolution less than 24 hours away and no major forecast shifts expected before the daily maximum is recorded, trader sentiment closely tracks the latest official guidance and ensemble consensus.