This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and the Met Office indicate a daytime maximum of 34°C for Panama City on August 13, aligning with the market's 99% implied probability for that outcome. In Panama's tropical wet-season climate, persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers typically moderate peak temperatures near this level, consistent with climatological averages for mid-August. Minor forecast adjustments from updated model runs or localized convective activity could still shift the exact high by 1°C, though significant deviations remain unlikely given current steering patterns and atmospheric stability. Traders appear to weigh these meteorological consensus signals heavily in pricing.