- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 3?100¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on September 3?0¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus on an 86-87°F high for New York City on September 3 reflected National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance projecting a peak in the mid- to upper-80s under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and dew points supporting modest warmth. Central Park observations ultimately recorded a maximum of 83°F, below the implied range, consistent with typical late-summer variability when steering patterns or cloud cover suppress temperatures relative to earlier guidance. Market-implied odds near certainty for 86-87°F captured the consensus from operational runs ahead of the date, while the slim probability on 88-89°F accounted for outlier scenarios such as stronger downslope warming or delayed marine influence. Updated model consensus and official briefings on observed conditions would have been the key near-term drivers capable of shifting positioning before resolution.